The Kentucky Derby is five weeks from Saturday and the final round of prep races have begun, with the July 18 Haskell (G1) producing three expected contestants. Major contenders will be in action over the next two weekends in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar (Aug. 1), Travers (G1) at Saratoga (Aug. 8), and Ellis Park Derby (Aug. 9).
Haskell winner Authentic, who held on by a nose at Monmouth Park, will carry his speed as far as he can on Derby Day. Runner-up Ny Traffic is also ticketed for Churchill Downs, and Dr Post is eligible to receive a more favorable setup after a non-threatening third.
The defection of expected Haskell starter Ete Indien, who trainer Patrick Biancone still hopes to run in the Kentucky Derby after a minor setback, left Authentic as the controlling speed in the 1 1/8-mile race, and the classy Bob Baffert trainee dictated moderate fractions (:23.80, :47.52, and 1:11.50) on about a one-length lead before drawing off in upper stretch. Authentic reached the eighth pole with a 2 1/2-length advantage, appearing well on his way to comfortable victory, but circumstances changed in deep stretch.
Ny Traffic, who was prompted to stay in range of the pacesetter during the opening stages and appeared all-in turning for home, suddenly began to make serious headway in the final sixteenth of a mile as Authentic’s stride shortened. The wire came just in time for Authentic, but the outcome left doubts surrounding his ability to negotiate 1 1/4 miles effectively in the Kentucky Derby.
Baffert, a five-time Kentucky Derby winner, said Authentic lost focus and began to idle in the latter stages. And while the theory can’t be completely discounted, it’s fair to point out that Authentic showed signs of immaturity but still easily won his first three starts at shorter distances by open lengths. When the Into Mischief colt stretched out to 1 1/8 miles, Authentic lost ground to rivals in deep stretch of his last two outings.